Recip Erdogan has been the leader of Turkey for 20 years. He is now term-limited as President. He cannot run again in the next election in 2028.
That’s fine with Erdogan. He doesn’t want to be President anyway. He wants to be Sultan.
Ever since becoming Prime Minister in 2003, Erdogan and his Islamic Welfare Party have set Turkey on a course back toward the glory days of the Ottoman empire. Kemal Ataturk created a new secular Turkey in the years following the First World War. He westernized the nation, adopted the Latin alphabet, and pushed Turkey to integrate with Europe, a move that ultimately led to Turkey joining NATO after World War II.
Erdogan wants to undo all that. He has championed and led what amounts to an Islamic revolution within Turkey. He talks regularly about freeing Jerusalem from the “Crusaders”. He provides a safe haven to Hamas. He has worked hard to expand Turkey’s influence in other nations in the Middle East once ruled by the Ottomans. Even now his troops are effectively annexing a large chunk of Syria. If he had his way, he would go far beyond that.
Speaking in December Erdogan said: “Every incident that has occurred in our region, especially in Syria, recently reminds us of this fact; Turkey is bigger than Turkey. As a nation, we cannot limit our horizon to 782,000 square kilometers.”
According to him, “Just as a person cannot escape his destiny, Turkey and the Turkish nation cannot escape or hide from their destiny. As a nation, we have to see the mission that history has assigned to us and act accordingly. We see this, we do not turn a deaf ear to the calls.”
Erdoğan continued: “Those who ask, ‘What is Turkey doing in Libya and Syria?’ may not be able to comprehend this mission. Those who do not know how Turkey has changed may have difficulty understanding the course of events. We leave them alone with nonsense. No matter what we tell those who have abandoned their empathy with their nation, it is useless. We will not waste time with them, we will focus on our goals.”
Now Erdogan stands on the brink of extinguishing the last vestiges of modern Turkey’s democratic order.
Turkish police on Wednesday arrested Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — claiming they were investigating corruption and terror links. At the same time, they took into custody at least 100 other supporters of Imamoglu. In the days since they have expanded the scope of their arrests and now are detaining those identified as protesting Imamoglu’s arrest.
At the same time they arrested Imamoglu, the authorities closed several roads in and around Istanbul, banned demonstrations, and shut down portions of the Internet. Turkey is now restricting access to multiple social media platforms including X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok.
The crackdown followed severe electoral losses by Erdogan’s party in local elections. It also came just before Imamoglu was expected to be named as the presidential candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
A day prior to Imamoglu’s arrest his university diploma was invalidated by his alma mater Istanbul University. Having a university degree is a prerequisite for running in elections under Turkish law. Taking away Imamoglu’s diploma now renders him incapable of ever becoming President.
“We are facing great tyranny, but I want you to know that I will not be discouraged,” Imamoglu said in a video message posted Wednesday. That message was broadcast all over Istanbul which remains under the control of Imamoglu’s party. It was even put out over loudspeakers in the street.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel condemned Imamoglu’s arrest as “an attempted coup” during a fiery speech at Istanbul City Hall. “This isn’t just about stripping Ekrem Imamoglu of his right to run for office—it’s about robbing the nation of its right to choose him,” Ozel declared. Imamoglu’s wife, Dilek Kaya Imamoglu, echoed this sentiment, calling the arrest “a targeted political operation to eliminate Turkey’s future president” and vowing to fight back against what she described as “a direct blow to the nation.”
In a dramatic escalation of political tensions, the Istanbul Prosecutor General’s Office has now announced the seizure of the construction company co-owned by Imamoglu. The move effectively bankrupts Imamoglu and destroys him financially.
In response cities all over Turkey have exploded. Demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands of people have been seen in Istanbul, Ankara, and a host of other major municipalities. University campuses are also being rocked by mass protests in which Erdogan has been branded as a “dictator” who must be forced out of office.
The fate of Turkey hangs in the balance. We may see an end to Erdogan’s Islamic revolution. We may just as likely see an end to Kemal Ataturk’s vision and the emergence of a new Sultan.